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SWTOR Predictions For 2013

December 30, 2012 by

SWTOR Predictions For 2013Now that I’ve done the walk of shame regarding my 2 out of 5 success rate with my 2012 SWTOR predictions, I thought it was worth drawing together some predictions for the coming year.

Aside from my handful of guesses, I’ve also got some gems from my colleague Simon, so let’s jump in.

David’s Predictions

1. A further restructure of the SWTOR team at BioWare will occur in the first six months of 2013

I don’t think the ructions are over at BioWare and I think we’ll see a bunch more changes in staffing. Not the usual churn of staff, something more formal. You never know, the F2P move may be successful enough to force the change as the team grows. Or it could be the reverse.

2. Rise of the Hutt Cartel will be critically successful and a moderate commercial success

There’s already a lot of conjecture over how substantial SWTOR’s first expansion will be, but I’m being optimistic that it warrants the cost and that Makeb as promised will be a bunch of new zones with plenty to occupy. Story-wise I’m expecting it to be seen as a success, with a bump in player numbers leading to some moderate commercial success as well.

3. There will be no guild ships during 2013

Sorry, can’t see it happening – as much as we’d all love it.

4. Loss of oceanic servers

At best I think we’ll end up with one local server but i won’t be surprised if we lose the lot. If ROTHC is successful that may prevent the closure, so here’s hoping.

5. More players than the month after launch

This time next year I think that SWTOR will still be around and will have more players than it did at its peak in the month of two after launch in December 2011. The new subscription model will have had a lot to do with it, but I’m hopeful the content updates and bug fixes will continue to be regular and establish SWTOR as a longer-term MMO in the space.

Simon’s Predictions

Hmm… my crystal Death Star (Mk 1) suggested the following before it blew a hole in the Alderaan poster on the opposite wall and frightened the neighbour’s cat so severely it experienced both explosive diarrhea and projectile vomiting at the same time (and you thought dianogas were bad):

1. Subscriber grumbling about having to pay anything for the Makeb expansion as soon as everyone emerges from their turkey coma.

2. Decent player retention from F2P with better than projected earnings from the Cartel Market. There will be no sub or player numbers mentioned in any future earnings call, needless to say (but that’s normal after a title goes F2P).

3. New maps for existing Warzones mid to late 2013 (just a hunch)

4. GLBT romance arcs will continue to be conveniently forgotten (ask all you like, they’ll never tell)

5. Gradual increase in quantity and quality of content within game updates as EA/BW see uptick in profitability and player-base stability, and confidence in the product’s future gradually strengthens.

6. I will have finally levelled a character up to 50 by Jan1 , 2013

 

Now over to you: do you agree with any of the above? Do you have your own predictions you’d like to share?

Filed Under: General News, Opinion, SWTOR Tagged With:

SWTOR 2012 Predictions Review

December 27, 2012 by

taris3I love this time of year when I get to look back over the past 12 months and slap myself at how wrong I was with last year’s predictions. Let’s not draw out the agony any further and have a look at what were hits and misses from my crystal ball:

The predictions:

Expansion 1 will be announced

This prediction’s a bit of an easy one in that I’m sure planning is already underway. It’ll probably be the second half of the year when the announcement is made, and there’ll probably be a new race. A new class seems less likely though.

Well I got this right at least – although only just with Rise Of The Hutt Cartel only announced last week.

The 3-million player mark will be hit in the first half of 2012

This is the biggest risk I’m taking in that the number could be well under or well over that, though I doubt it. That said I’m fairly confident this watermark will be reached by July 2012, and then it’ll be a much slower growth trajectory from then on.

I think I should just shake my head sadly and move on yes?

Sensationalist journalism will dig its teeth in

Around February/March expect the first run of stories on people claiming SWTOR has taken over their lives / eaten their children / forced their spouse to taser them to stop playing the game.

Another big miss here – mostly related to the growth issue i.e. unless SWTOR hits 3 or 4 million users the sensationalist media is unlikely to kick in with a story.

Plans for a TOR movie will be announced

Either based on one of the novels i.e. Revan, or key story lines in the game, there’ll be at the very least hints thrown out by LucasArts or even Bioware/EA on movie plans. With or without Justin Bieber as Revan.

I won’t be a con-man and claim the announcement of Star Wars Episodes 7-9 count for this prediction given they won’t be set in the Old Republic era.

Australia / New Zealand launch

I have to throw in a local prediction here. The launch events will be in March in Sydney and Auckland as the respective largest cities in each country. One of the Bioware ‘Doctors’ will come for the launch, along with whichever community rep and/or developer that wins the lottery for the working holiday Down Under. There will be no flash mobs in full Star Wars kit riding kangaroos and kiwis. Well definitely no kiwis, as that’d be cruel.

Got this one right on the money – and my prediction of no flash mobs was a sure-fire one once it became apparent how low-key the event was going to be, although we did get to sit down one-on-one with BioWare’s Gabe Amatangelo.

 

So a 2/5 score: I reckon even Nostradamus could have done better but there you go. It won’t stop us making further predictions for 2013 – watch this space.

Over to you now: looking back over the past year, did things in SWTOR pan out for you like you expected they would?

Filed Under: General News, Opinion, SWTOR Tagged With:

Oceanic Soap Box: Remembering The Fallen

September 7, 2012 by

I thought that this week, we’d get a little sentimental. It never hurts to take some time to remember lost comrades – and it applies in the MMO sphere as well. What prompted me was the announcement over the past week that City of Heroes will be closing.

It’s an MMO that’s been around since 2004 and like any game of that longevity, it has a devoted following. All too soon it’ll become one of those games that we remember we ‘used to play’.

So on that note, let’s talk about games that have closed / become no longer playable. For me a standout is Raid on Bungeling Bay on the Commodore 64. I got to play at once for around 20 minutes at my parent’s friend’s house and spent the weeks (and months) afterwards obsessing about it. I’d still love to give it a try although I’m pretty sure I’d find it disappointing now.

Which games do you miss most? It doesn’t matter whether it’s PC/Mac/Console/Handheld/Online – let us know what used to float your boat!

Filed Under: General News, Op-Ed, Suggestion Box Tagged With:

SWTOR: Grinding The Gears

August 29, 2012 by
There’s nothing so embarrassing as trying to go up a hill in the wrong gear. You can hear the engine struggle and have to endure the amused smiles from passengers in other cars as they bomb past you. Unless you are a complete idiot, you will change down gears.

This is clearly BioWare Austin’s revised philosophy as BioWare’s Executive Producer for Live Services, Jeff Hickman, has pointed out in a recent interview with Zam.com.  Lets face it, BW has become notorious for offering up big promises of things ‘coming soon’ but for the most part it’s been a bad case of over-promising and under-delivering. It look like this is changing – hopefully.

While his responses include the usual soft peddle and PR spin where he tries to paint the move of offering a F2P tier as a considered move that’s part of a larger strategy guided by keen observation of the market place (as opposed to the market pushing them towards a cliff), he also offers some interesting morsels that will appear to hint at better days to come for the struggling MMO.

The first thing to mention is that Jeff Hickman overall sounds like a man who wants to make things right. If that is reflective of the general attitude in Austin then good things might be about to happen. There had been fears expressed by some that EA/Bioware might just throw token resources at the game to keep it ticking over but not put any great effort into re-energising it. However it sounds, to me at least, that a shift in focus and attitude has occurred and with it some actual progress.

The six-week update schedule, if they stick to it, should be achievable especially since they’ve already got a significant amount of content mapped out and built ahead of time according to Daniel Erickson. DC Universe Online manages updates roughly every month, so lets consider this a likely eventuality.

Now, onto Space combat. While many are vocal about this being an irrelevant and seldom touched part of the game, recent figures indicate that it’s popular.  While Hickman confirmed that hard mode missions would be available, he was decidedly evasive about any other developments saying only that there was a dedicated space team working on ‘lots of interesting things’. Granted that smacks of ‘coming soon’ but in the overall context of the interview it sounds more substantial to me. Apropos of nothing? Maybe, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say I think this sounds promising.

Then of course we have the much derided Great Acquisition Race. While many found this frustrating and far too short-lived, Hickman said it was full of foreshadowing and hinted at where the story was headed. Again, this at least confirms that Makeb, as a class-generic zone isn’t all we have in store. There is more story to come and for many of us, that remains the main attraction of the game. Once again, it sounds hopeful.

Granted, there’s nothing rock-solid here and SWTOR has plummeted from keenly anticipated WoW killer to being written off as ‘a miss’ in the last EA earnings call. But this may be a blessing in disguise. Perhaps now that internal and external expectations have crashed, the game has a little breathing space to consolidate, reappraise and rebuild without the intense scrutiny and pressure. Perhaps there’s less need for the vague promises that gamers always assumed were directed at them but were merely coded messages to the stock market. Those messages caused most of us a lot of frustration and while I thought I was beyond believing or caring, this interview still leaves me oddly hopeful.

Even with so much else in the market right now, SWTOR can still turn things around. It will never have ten million subs but it can find its niche. SWTOR still has a lot to offer and under the right leadership there’s no reason it shouldn’t continue to develop and mature into a game with a substantial, stable player community. With luck it might even evolve into the game it was always intended to be before EA pushed it out of the womb prematurely.

[Image via Free Images Archive]

Filed Under: General News, Opinion, SWTOR Tagged With: , ,

SWTOR: How many Cartel Coins to the Drachma?

August 27, 2012 by

Money. We all need it, we all use it. Without money we couldn’t get what we need, or more frequently what we merely desire. As we’ve all learnt over the past few years, the value of any currency bobs about like a dead Gungan in a fast flowing river, so what type of currency you get makes all the difference. What can you buy with it? Is it a silver dollar or a Zimbabwean dollar?

Which brings me to the bright and shiny new currency, Cartel Coins, that are part of BioWare’s new brand of bling to retain existing players and win back some of the jaded masses. By their own admission, they are struggling to keep people’s interest, either because players have become bored with the existing content, the game doesn’t play the way they want or offer the playstyle they like. Even worse, new games like Guild Wars 2 or upcoming expansions for existing games (WoW, Rift) are proving far more enticing.
The idea of rewarding those of us who are sticking with SWTOR with a rapidly increasing pile of virtual dosh is a good one and they’ve given us a rough idea of the sorts of things we can buy,  but they’ve given us no idea of our money pile’s relative value.

First of all, lets get a rough idea of how many coins you may have in your pocket when F2P and the new store finally hit. By my admittedly wonky math skills:

SWTOR goes free to play ‘this fall’, that being a period between Sept 22 and Dec 20. Pandaria comes out Sept 25. While I doubt BioWare are thinking that F2P can compete, they may still release it about the same time in order to reduce or mitigate churn. However it may be they wait until after this (perhaps for strategic reasons – or perhaps because they won’t be ready), but at a guess it would be late October when they can get a little more traction in the average gamer’s hummingbird attention span. After all, any uptick in numbers (F2P plus subbed players) they can get in the approach to and during the holiday season would be good news to report in the February Q3 2013 earnings call, since F2P subscriber numbers could be counted as forecastable income through micro-transaction earnings.

Back to my earlier point, assuming that you have been a paid subscriber  from Jan 20 2012 (after your free 30 days elapsed) through to say Oct 20 2012 you will have 150 coins per month up to Jul 31 (6×150=900) and 200 per month (3×200=900) after that, until F2P occurs (e.g. Oct 20). If you got the CE there’s an extra 1000. So what will 1800 (or 2800) cartel coins buy you? That’s the big unknown and the septic splinter in my dewback’s foot. Will it buy you a set of orange armour? Half a dozen stims? A vanity pet and a title? A mega awesome 200% mount or a 90% one that looks like a lawnmower and kicks you off whenever a level 10 trash mob gives you a dirty look? -cough- Grand Acquisition Race

Anyone who remembers the fine promises of the Collector’s Edition vendor will recall that not only did they never put anything new or interesting in there (EVER!), they actually took stuff out. Can BioWare be trusted? Not based on previous performance. I’d like to believe them, I’d like to trust them, but I can’t muster the strength anymore. In any case the entire premise is consistent with much of BioWare’s communication lately: broad promises with little detail. Perhaps by the one year anniversary we’ll all look back at the first turbulent year and smile knowing that all is now well and the worst is behind us. I’d like to think so.

To sum up, the real question is this: can something be an incentive when its value or worth is a complete mystery? Is this just a poorly defined carrot offered to those on the fence while the Devs and number crunchers scramble behind the scenes to work out how the hell this is all going to work? Or is this part of a considered strategy?

It’s an impossible question to answer, which is why I’m not going to try, but speculation is fun, it drives Reddit contributors insane and at the very least this is a matter that I think we all need to consider. If you are still playing the game and loving it, the cash donation of Cartel Coins is icing on a delicious cake. If the cake is starting to taste a little stale though, no amount of icing is going to help.

Filed Under: General News, Opinion, SWTOR Tagged With: ,

Oceanic Soap Box: Guild Wars 2 Eve

August 24, 2012 by

This week it’s a bit hard to ignore the huge MMO launch on our doorstep. Guild Wars 2 launches for some tomorrow afternoon, and for the rest three days after that. So let’s make that the topic for debate this week.

Will you be jumping into GW2 at launch? Will you be playing it at all and if not, why not?

For mine, I’ll be there Saturday afternoon to check things out and to start levelling but for me GW2 is going to be a casual thing. Something I jump in and enjoy once a week or so.

What about you?

Filed Under: General News, Guild Wars 2, Suggestion Box Tagged With:

SWTOR Suggestion Box: F2P as saviour?

August 3, 2012 by

Ok I promise this will be the last SWTOR Free to Play post for this week, but it’s an obvious topic for some more discussion. Specifically, is the change going to affect your relationship with SWTOR? Will you be playing more, less, don’t care about the change?

My best guess is that there will be some growth as a result, but a guess is all it is. So educamate me: do you think this is a new dawn or the start of the sunset. Jump in!

Filed Under: General News, Opinion, Suggestion Box, SWTOR Tagged With:

SWTOR F2P: Game On, BioWare!

August 2, 2012 by

As promised, key members of our team are going to give their thoughts on the announcement SWTOR has gone free-to-play. It’s Jemima Moore’s turn.

I love SWTOR and when I awoke to the news that my current passion was going F2P, I will admit, I got that sinking feeling most long-time gamers get when they hear that phrase.  F2P = MMO death, or at least it used to.

My immediate reaction was one of sheer outrage at the blatantly misleading marketing language.

“…adding a new Free-to-Play option this fall. This option will give players access to each of the eight iconic Star Wars character class storylines, all the way up to level 50, with certain restrictions*. Unlimited game access, including new higher-level game content and new features will be made available through individual purchases or through a subscription option.”

What? Let me re-read that a couple of times and take out all the bits designed to confuse…

“a new Free-to-Play option… will give players access to … new higher-level game content and new features through individual purchases or through a subscription option.”

So… um… the F2P option doesn’t give you access to higher-level content and new features – you have to purchase them or take up the subscription option.

“Subscribers will retain unrestricted access to all game features”

Except you won’t. Some game features require Cartel Coins to access and subscribers get a restricted amount for their monthly fee.

Even the name of the option is misleading. I remember when Free-to-Play actually meant it was free to play. Without spending a dime you could experience every aspect of the game.  Real money was only required if you want to look different, get around more quickly or skip a grind fest to min/max your gear.

Pay-to-Win meant the game was mostly free but to get the best gear, experience late end-game content and be competitive at the highest level you had to pay.

BioWare, and many other developers, are calling their incoming model free-to-play, but it’s actually Pay-to-Win or a Super-extended-free-trial or some other marketing lingo yet to be developed. Somewhere along the lines the meaning of F2P got hijacked and twisted around to mean any model that isn’t strictly and solely subscription-based. From a developer’s point of view it makes sense. Any catch-phrase with the word FREE in it is number one with a bullet when it comes to advertising. So what if it isn’t true? Gamers are addicts – we just have to suck them in.

Well, we may have let them twist around definitions and use them for evil and not good – but most gamers are pretty picky about their drug, er… MMO of choice and value-for-money remains King.

In this regard, BioWare’s new Pay-as-you-Play option is the greatest blessing we could have hoped for. Subscription models don’t tend to force players to assess the worth of their fun every time they log-in and play. For most the financial commitment to a game happens once and then continues unmonitored until you tell it to stop.

Split those decisions into many little parts and shift them to the here and now and people get a lot more picky. Subscribers may be willing to spend $15 per month on buggy unfinished content, riding elevators, staring at loading screens, and basic MMO services that are unintuitive and clunky like the GTN or crafting window. But spending 50 cents on a Warzone that may or may not count as a win will only happen once.

Bioware haven’t always demonstrated the best sense in this regard, but I’m keeping the faith that the instantaneous money-talks feedback they’re about to introduce into the game will drive faster bug fixes, better QA, more content and a few sackings in the Crafting Department.

I’ve got money in my pocket, Bioware, so it’s Game On!

Filed Under: General News, Opinion, SWTOR Tagged With:

Comparing SWTOR F2P Versus Subscription

August 1, 2012 by

It’s been a big day for SWTOR, with the announcement of the game going free-to-play. Although I’m extremely cynical about the framing of the announcement of a great positive sign for the game, I do think the move is likely to grow the game somewhat. Not purely because of the change broadly, but because of the way BioWare have drawn a nice line between what F2P’ers and ongoing subscribers can access. Let’s take a look at the key ones:

1. Everyone can play right through to Level 50

This is an unavoidable move if you want to attract new players and it’s a good move when you factor in the other differences between the two player types.

2. Limited character creation options for F2P’ers

Only subscribers will get to choose species. It’s a good differentiation, as any RP’ers or other Star Wars devotees that love a particular species will be driven to subscribe. More casual players won’t be fazed most likely, so it’s not a huge issue.

3. Warzones

F2P’ers will have a lesser number of Warzones they can complete each week. There’s no confirmation of what the exact limitation is at this stage. Rabid PvP’ers will probably maintain a subscription anyways, while everyone else can really check out if they like SWTOR PvP.

4. Flashpoints and Space Combat

Again, only subscribers will have unlimited times they can play Flashpoints or space missions. What will be interesting here is the number F2P’ers can play – if the number is relatively high then there actually won’t be that big a difference. No-one sane plays dozens of Flashpoints a week. Do they?

5. Operations

This is probably the firmest line in the sand between the two player types. If you want to raid, you need to be a subscriber. That said, the F2P players should be welcome additions to guilds, as they can level up and gear up on F2P and if they decide they want that last step, they can pay up then. The cynic in me says that F2P’ers will get some Operation access in the future though.

6. Travel Features and GTN

Again, less access for those who go F2P. GTN access is apparently going to be ‘extremely’ limited, with full subscribers able to have 50 simultaneous listings. There’s no clarity on exactly what falls within ‘travel features’ – perhaps there’ll be longer cooldowns on Quick Travel for those who go F2P.

7. Priority Login for Subscribers

Ok, I feel bad, but I laughed when I read this one. Subscribers will always jump the login queue ahead of F2P’ers. That’s reasonable and handy – if there were queues. Can anyone tell me the last time they had a queue? 1.3 update maybe?

Over to you: are the subscription features enough to stop you going to F2P? Let us know!

Filed Under: General News, Opinion, SWTOR Tagged With:

SWTOR F2P: Caution, Diatribe Ahead

August 1, 2012 by
As promised, key members of our team are going to give their thoughts on today’s announcement. First cab off the rank: Simon Potter.
There’s a time for being charitable and understanding and there’s a time to just say what you think… guess which this is?
Clue… I am angry, people.

In my humble opinion, F2P isn’t the news although I welcome the change, if it’s done right. 

Bioware have plenty of good examples to follow and SWTOR should enjoy the growth and ongoing success of DCUO and LotRO. If they screw it up, they only have themselves to blame.

What really burns my brisket about this announcement is the mealy mouthed obfuscation from various spokespeople regarding this inevitable model shift. While they were just following orders, it’s perfectly clear that the weasel words were to cloud the issue so this announcement could be married to the EA earnings call yesterday. Perhaps they value their shareholders opinion and good wishes more than players? I think it’s a distinct possibility.

All the while BioWare maintain the ‘if we don’t talk about it, then no one will notice’, which I will be honest is really beginning to grate. Since BioWare have fired most of their community team, it’s no surprise that their communication has gone from uneven to non-existent to insulting. However at least one person at EA is honest, if not with player then with the investors. In the earnings call Frank Gibeau, President, EA Labels, referred to SWTOR as ‘a miss’. Well, that puts things in perspective, doesn’t it?

To sum things up, if BioWare expect to keep the sudden influx of new and returning players informed, they will need to lift their community communication dramatically and perhaps try to be a little more honest and open. Too much spin makes people dizzy and nauseous.

Now that I’ve got that out of my system, let me assure you I still love SWTOR and am looking forward to the upcoming announced content, assuming we ever see it. After all they’ve promised a number of things that have yet to materialise. The game is only just beginning to hit its stride and I’m certain it will be a longterm survivor.

I still hate Taris though. 
Filed Under: General News, Opinion, SWTOR

SWTOR Suggestion Box: Daily Quests

July 27, 2012 by

Another work week is close to done for a lot of us, so it’s time to get excited about some weekend gaming time. While completing some Ilum dailies last night, I got to thinking about the dailies grind in general. Wouldn’t it be great if there could be more variety built into dailies.

This isn’t a criticism of SWTOR specifically, as I’d argue it has one of the better daily/weekly quest setups around.

Still, I’m sure there could be improvements, and that’s where you come in: if you could design daily or weekly quests, what would you change in SWTOR? Be as brave / zany / silly as you like!

Filed Under: General News, Suggestion Box, SWTOR Tagged With: ,

Suggestion Box: HK-51 Abilities

July 20, 2012 by

One of the more exciting pieces of information coming out of BioWare over the past week was the teaser on HK-51. Which got me to wondering what people would like their favourite killing machine companion to do, besides.. killing.

So over to you: if you could decide a useful / funny / bizarre ability your HK-51 could have, what would it be?

Filed Under: General News, Suggestion Box, SWTOR Tagged With: ,
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