Now that I’ve done the walk of shame regarding my 2 out of 5 success rate with my 2012 SWTOR predictions, I thought it was worth drawing together some predictions for the coming year.

Aside from my handful of guesses, I’ve also got some gems from my colleague Simon, so let’s jump in.

David’s Predictions

1. A further restructure of the SWTOR team at BioWare will occur in the first six months of 2013

I don’t think the ructions are over at BioWare and I think we’ll see a bunch more changes in staffing. Not the usual churn of staff, something more formal. You never know, the F2P move may be successful enough to force the change as the team grows. Or it could be the reverse.

2. Rise of the Hutt Cartel will be critically successful and a moderate commercial success

There’s already a lot of conjecture over how substantial SWTOR’s first expansion will be, but I’m being optimistic that it warrants the cost and that Makeb as promised will be a bunch of new zones with plenty to occupy. Story-wise I’m expecting it to be seen as a success, with a bump in player numbers leading to some moderate commercial success as well.

3. There will be no guild ships during 2013

Sorry, can’t see it happening – as much as we’d all love it.

4. Loss of oceanic servers

At best I think we’ll end up with one local server but i won’t be surprised if we lose the lot. If ROTHC is successful that may prevent the closure, so here’s hoping.

5. More players than the month after launch

This time next year I think that SWTOR will still be around and will have more players than it did at its peak in the month of two after launch in December 2011. The new subscription model will have had a lot to do with it, but I’m hopeful the content updates and bug fixes will continue to be regular and establish SWTOR as a longer-term MMO in the space.

Simon’s Predictions

Hmm… my crystal Death Star (Mk 1) suggested the following before it blew a hole in the Alderaan poster on the opposite wall and frightened the neighbour’s cat so severely it experienced both explosive diarrhea and projectile vomiting at the same time (and you thought dianogas were bad):

1. Subscriber grumbling about having to pay anything for the Makeb expansion as soon as everyone emerges from their turkey coma.

2. Decent player retention from F2P with better than projected earnings from the Cartel Market. There will be no sub or player numbers mentioned in any future earnings call, needless to say (but that’s normal after a title goes F2P).

3. New maps for existing Warzones mid to late 2013 (just a hunch)

4. GLBT romance arcs will continue to be conveniently forgotten (ask all you like, they’ll never tell)

5. Gradual increase in quantity and quality of content within game updates as EA/BW see uptick in profitability and player-base stability, and confidence in the product’s future gradually strengthens.

6. I will have finally levelled a character up to 50 by Jan1 , 2013

Now over to you: do you agree with any of the above? Do you have your own predictions you’d like to share?

I love this time of year when I get to look back over the past 12 months and slap myself at how wrong I was with last year’s predictions. Let’s not draw out the agony any further and have a look at what were hits and misses from my crystal ball:

The predictions:

Expansion 1 will be announced

This prediction’s a bit of an easy one in that I’m sure planning is already underway. It’ll probably be the second half of the year when the announcement is made, and there’ll probably be a new race. A new class seems less likely though.

Well I got this right at least – although only just with Rise Of The Hutt Cartel only announced last week.

The 3-million player mark will be hit in the first half of 2012

This is the biggest risk I’m taking in that the number could be well under or well over that, though I doubt it. That said I’m fairly confident this watermark will be reached by July 2012, and then it’ll be a much slower growth trajectory from then on.

I think I should just shake my head sadly and move on yes?

Sensationalist journalism will dig its teeth in

Around February/March expect the first run of stories on people claiming SWTOR has taken over their lives / eaten their children / forced their spouse to taser them to stop playing the game.

Another big miss here – mostly related to the growth issue i.e. unless SWTOR hits 3 or 4 million users the sensationalist media is unlikely to kick in with a story.

Plans for a TOR movie will be announced

Either based on one of the novels i.e. Revan, or key story lines in the game, there’ll be at the very least hints thrown out by LucasArts or even Bioware/EA on movie plans. With or without Justin Bieber as Revan.

I won’t be a con-man and claim the announcement of Star Wars Episodes 7-9 count for this prediction given they won’t be set in the Old Republic era.

Australia / New Zealand launch

I have to throw in a local prediction here. The launch events will be in March in Sydney and Auckland as the respective largest cities in each country. One of the Bioware ‘Doctors’ will come for the launch, along with whichever community rep and/or developer that wins the lottery for the working holiday Down Under. There will be no flash mobs in full Star Wars kit riding kangaroos and kiwis. Well definitely no kiwis, as that’d be cruel.

Got this one right on the money – and my prediction of no flash mobs was a sure-fire one once it became apparent how low-key the event was going to be, although we did get to sit down one-on-one with BioWare’s Gabe Amatangelo.

So a 2/5 score: I reckon even Nostradamus could have done better but there you go. It won’t stop us making further predictions for 2013 – watch this space.

Over to you now: looking back over the past year, did things in SWTOR pan out for you like you expected they would?